Assessment of probability of aircraft crashes for Nuclear Science Research Institute

Kamikawa, Yutaka; Suzuki, Makoto; Agake, Toshiki; Murakami, Takahiko; Morita, Yusuke; Shiina, Hidenori; Fukushima, Manabu; Hirane, Nobuhiko; Ouchi, Yasuhiro

JAEA-Technology 2023-030, 57 Pages, 2024/03

JAEA-Technology-2023-030.pdf:1.93MB

Owing to the publication of the latest data about aircraft crashes by Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA), it was necessary to re-evaluate the probabilities of aircraft crashes for Nuclear Science Research Institute (NSRI). By using of the assessment method provided in "Regulatory Guide of the Assessment Standard for Probability of Airplane Crash on a Nuclear Power Reactor Facility", we re-evaluated the probabilities of aircraft crashes against the nuclear facilities in NSRI. As a result of the evaluations, the sum of the probabilities of aircraft crashes against Waste Treatment Facilities (maximum probability among all nuclear facilities in NSRI) is 5.6810 (times/(reactor year)) which is lower than 10 (times/(reactor year)) that is the assessment criterion whether aircraft crashes is considered to be "anticipated external human induced events" in design basis or not.

Convergence behavior of statistical uncertainty in probability table for cross section in unresolved resonance region

Tada, Kenichi; Endo, Tomohiro*

Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 60(11), p.1397 - 1405, 2023/11

https://doi.org/10.1080/00223131.2023.2204102

The probability table method is a well-known method for addressing self-shielding effects in the unresolved resonance region. A long computational time is required to generate the probability table. The effective way to reduce the generation time of the probability table is the reduction of the number of ladders. The purpose of this study is the estimation of the optimal number of ladders using the statistical uncertainty in the probability table. To this end, the statistical uncertainty quantification method of the probability table was developed and the convergence behavior of the statistical uncertainty was investigated. The product of the probability table and the average cross section was considered the target of the statistical uncertainty. The convergence rate was affected by the average level spacing and reduced neutron width. The generation time of the probability table was less than half when the input parameter was changed from the number of ladders to the tolerance value.

Adjoint-weighted correlated sampling for -eigenvalue perturbation in Monte Carlo calculation

Tuya, D.; Nagaya, Yasunobu

Annals of Nuclear Energy, 169, p.108919_1 - 108919_9, 2022/05

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anucene.2021.108919

Estimating an effect of a perturbation in a fissile system on its -eigenvalue requires special technique called perturbation theory when the considered perturbation is small. In this study, we develop an adjoint-weighted correlated sampling (AWCS) method based on the exact perturbation theory without any approximation by combining the correlated sampling (CS) method with iterated-fission probability (IFP) based adjoint-weighting method. With the advantages of the CS method being good at providing very small uncertainty for small perturbations and the IFP-based adjoint-weighting method being suitable for continuous-energy Monte Carlo calculation, the developed AWCS method based on the exact perturbation theory offers a new rigorous approach for perturbation calculations. The obtained results by the developed AWCS method for verification problems involving Godiva and simplified STACY density perturbations showed good agreement with the reference calculations.

Assessment of the probability of aircraft crashing for HTTR

Ono, Masato; Hanawa, Yoshio; Sonobe, Hiroshi; Nishimura, Arashi; Sugaya, Naoto; Iigaki, Kazuhiko

JAEA-Technology 2020-010, 14 Pages, 2020/09

JAEA-Technology-2020-010.pdf:1.74MB

In response to new standard for regulating research and test reactor which is enforced December 18, 2013, it was carried out assessment of the probability of aircraft crashing for HTTR. According to assessment method provided in the Assessment Criteria of the Probability of Aircraft Crashing on Commercial Power Reactor Facilities, assessment was conducted targeting reactor building, spent fuel storage building and cooling tower. As a result, it was confirmed that the probability was 5.9810, which is lower than the assessment criteria 10.

Unified description of the fission probability for highly excited nuclei

Iwamoto, Hiroki; Meigo, Shinichiro

Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 56(2), p.160 - 171, 2019/02

https://doi.org/10.1080/00223131.2018.1539351

We present a new model to describe the fission probability of the high-energy fission model, as deduced from the intranuclear cascade calculation with the Intra-Nuclear Cascade model of Lige (INCL) version 4.6 and Prokofiev's phenomenological systematics of the proton-induced fission cross sections. This model is implemented in the de-excitation model of the Generalized Evaporation Model (GEM), and applied to Monte Carlo spallation reaction simulation using the Particle and Heavy Ion Transport code System (PHITS). Comparing with experimental data for subactinide nuclei shows that this model can provide a unified prediction of the proton-, neutron-, and deuteron-induced fission cross sections with markedly improved accuracy. The calculated fission fragments tend to shift to higher mass numbers. To account for the isotopic distributions of fission fragments within the framework of a coupled INCL/GEM, modification of INCL is required, especially for description of the highly-excited states of residual nuclei.

Application of probability generating function to the essentials of nondestructive nuclear materials assay system using neutron correlation

Hosoma, Takashi

JAEA-Research 2016-019, 53 Pages, 2017/01

JAEA-Research-2016-019.pdf:5.71MB

Application of probability generating function for nondestructive nuclear materials assay system was studied. First, high-order neutron correlations were derived algebraically up to septuplet and basic characteristics of the correlations were investigated. It was found that higher-order correlation increases rapidly in response to the increase of leakage multiplication, crosses and leaves lower-order correlations behind, when leakage multiplication is 1.3 that depends on detector efficiency and counter setting. Next, fission rates and doubles count rates by fast neutron and by thermal neutron in their coexisting system were derived algebraically. It was found that the number of induced fissions per unit time by fast neutron and by thermal neutron, the number of induced fissions ( 1) by one source neutron, and individual doubles count rates were possible to be estimated from Rossi-alpha combined distribution and measured ratio of each area obtained by differential die-away self-interrogation and conventional assay data.

MOSRA-SRAC; Lattice calculation module of the modular code system for nuclear reactor analyses MOSRA

Okumura, Keisuke

JAEA-Data/Code 2015-015, 162 Pages, 2015/10

JAEA-Data-Code-2015-015.pdf:3.99MB
JAEA-Data-Code-2015-015-appendix(CD-ROM).zip:3.38MB

MOSRA-SRAC is a lattice calculation module of the Modular code System for nuclear Reactor Analyses (MOSRA). This module performs the neutron transport calculation for various types of fuel elements including existing light water reactors, research reactors, etc. based on the collision probability method with a set of the 200-group cross-sections generated from the Japanese Evaluated Nuclear Data Library JENDL-4.0. It has also a function of the isotope generation and depletion calculation for up to 234 nuclides in each fuel material in the lattice. In these ways, MOSRA-SRAC prepares the burn-up dependent effective microscopic and macroscopic cross-section data to be used in core calculations.

Evaluation of ex-vessel steam explosion induced containment failure probability for Japanese BWR

Moriyama, Kiyofumi; Takagi, Seiji; Muramatsu, Ken; Nakamura, Hideo; Maruyama, Yu

Proceedings of 2005 International Congress on Advances in Nuclear Power Plants (ICAPP '05) (CD-ROM), 9 Pages, 2005/05

The containment failure probability due to ex-vessel steam explosions were evaluated for a BWR Mk-II model plant. The evaluation was made for two scenarios: a steam explosion in the pedestal area, or in the suppression pool. A probabilistic approach, Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), was applied for the evaluation of steam explosion loads, in which a steam explosion simulation code JASMINE was used as a physics model. The fragility curves connecting the steam explosion loads and containment failure were developed based on simplified assumptions on the containment failure scenarios. The mean conditional probabilities of containment failure per occurrence of a steam explosion were for suppression pool and for pedestal area. Note that the results depend on the assumed range of input parameters and fragility curves that involve conservatism and simplification.

Quantitative risk trends deriving from PSA-based event analyses; Analysis of results from U.S.NRC's accident sequence precursor program

Watanabe, Norio

Nihon Genshiryoku Gakkai Wabun Rombunshi, 3(4), p.396 - 406, 2004/12

https://doi.org/10.3327/taesj2002.3.396

The U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been carrying out the Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) Program to identify and categorize precursors to potential severe core damage accident sequences using the PSA technique. The ASP Program has identified a lot of risk significant events as precursors that occurred at U. S. nuclear power plants. The results from the ASP Program include valuable information that could be useful for obtaining risk significant insights and for monitoring risk trends in nuclear power industry. The present study examines and discusses quantitative risk trends for the industry level, using two indicators, that is, the occurrence frequency of precursors and the annual core damage probability, deriving from the ASP analysis results. It is shown that the core damage risk at U.S. nuclear power plants has been lowered and the likelihood of risk significant events has been remarkably decreasing. Also, the present study demonstrates that two risk indicators used here can provide quantitative information useful for monitoring risk trends in nuclear power industry.

Importance of fracture criterion and crack tip material characterization in probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis of an RPV under a pressurized thermal shock

Shibata, Katsuyuki; Onizawa, Kunio; Li, Y.*; Kato, Daisuke*

International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping, 81(9), p.749 - 756, 2004/09

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpvp.2004.05.003

The paper describes the procedure to evaluate the ductile crack extension, where an increase in fracture resistance by a ductile crack extension is considered. Two standard -resistance curves are prepared for applying the elasto-plastic fracture criterion. Case studies concerning the effect of elasto-plastic fracture criterion were carried out using a severe PTS transient. The introduction of the elasto-plastic fracture criterion significantly contributes to remove the over-conservatism in applying the linear elastic fracture criterion. It was also found that the algorithm of the re-evaluation of crack tip characterization also has a significant effect on the failure probability.